During this assembly election, Vidarbha, with 62 seats spread across 11 districts, is a focal point and expected to be pivotal in government formation. The region is fiercely contested between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). In the 2019 elections, BJP emerged as the dominant force with 29 seats, followed by Congress with 15, undivided NCP with six, and unified Shiv Sena with four seats. Additionally, smaller parties and independents, such as Prahar Janshakti, secured five seats. With the recent split in NCP, rise of independents, and a resurgence of MVA, Vidarbha is poised to be a crucial battleground this time around.
In East Vidarbha, comprising Nagpur, Wardha, Gadchiroli, Chandrapur, Gondia, and Bhandara districts, historically a stronghold for BJP, internal conflicts and a revitalized MVA pose challenges to Mahayuti's dominance. Nagpur, with 12 politically significant seats, is gearing up for high-stakes battles. While BJP won 11 seats in 2014 and six in 2019, Congress aims to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment, especially in South and Central constituencies of Nagpur city, narrowly lost to BJP previously. The party also seeks to strengthen its position in Nagpur North and West, where it emerged victorious in 2019.
In rural Nagpur, Congress is focusing on issues like farmer distress and local development, which were weaknesses for BJP in 2019. BJP relies on the popularity of its local leaders and strong organization to protect its remaining seats.
In Wardha, BJP faces a tough challenge from Congress in the assembly constituency. Deoli is expected to witness a BJP versus Congress or Shiv Sena (UBT) contest, while in Hinganghat, BJP braces to defend its seat against NCP (Sharad Pawar). The Arvi constituency's contest is also gaining momentum.In Gadchiroli, internal conflict within the BJP has become a significant challenge as both alliances consider their options for candidates. The tribal-dominated district is politically sensitive, with the MVA making strong efforts to unseat the BJP. In Chandrapur, a tough political battle is anticipated in its six constituencies, with key players vying for support. The Gondia region is finalizing strategies, with notable contests shaping up between various political parties. Bhandara's reserved constituencies are witnessing conflicting dynamics, particularly around the nomination of candidates.Sharad Pawar (P) is being eyed by Congress, intensifying the competition in Sakoli, which is currently held by MPCC president Nana Patole. Multiple BJP candidates are competing for the ticket, setting the stage for a closely contested election. Western Vidarbha, encompassing Amravati, Yavatmal, Akola, Washim, and Buldhana districts, has historically been a stronghold for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), but the BJP has made advances in recent elections. Internal disagreements over seat-sharing among Congress, NCP (SP), and Shiv Sena (UBT) are complicating the election strategies in these regions.
Amravati is a hive of political activity, with fierce electoral battles expected in the main seat of the district. Congress and NCP (Ajit Pawar) are locked in a struggle for supremacy, while the presence of smaller parties like MNS could add further complexity. In Badnera, Yuva Swabhiman Party's Ravi Rana, an ally of BJP, is anticipated to face competition from Shiv Sena (UBT) or the NCP. Former minister Yashomati Thakur of Congress is aiming for her fourth consecutive victory in Teosa, while other constituencies like Dhamangaon Railway and Morshi will witness intense contests between BJP, Congress, and NCP.
Yavatmal is witnessing BJP making significant progress in a traditionally Congress-dominated district, where BJP now controls five out of seven seats. Congress, still influential in Pusad and Digras, is striving to regain lost territories. The ongoing seat-sharing negotiations within MVA are adding uncertainty to the electoral scenarios in this district.
In Akola, a four-way contest is looming with Mahayuti, MVA, VBA, and Prahar Janshakti expected to field strong contenders. Akot and Murtizapur, both reserved for Scheduled Castes, are set for tough battles, as BJP seeks to maintain its dominance. Following the passing of veteran leader Govardhandas Sharma, the BJP must select new candidates in Akola West, while in the East, it may stick with incumbent MLA Randhir Sawarkar.
Washim is gearing up for a triangular battle in Karanja and Risod constituencies, where multiple parties will vie for victory.There is expected to be a three-way competition between Mahayuti, MVA, and VBA in the upcoming elections. The BJP is likely to choose Lakhan Malik again in Washim, while a new candidate will be selected for Karanja following the passing of current MLA Rajendra Patni. Congress's Amit Zanak is seeking his fourth term in Risod. In Buldhana, a clash is set between Sena (UBT) and Sena (Shinde) in various constituencies traditionally contested by Shiv Sena. Uddhav's Shiv Sena is focusing on the Buldhana and Mehkar seats, while Congress is eyeing Malkapur, Chikhli, Jalgaon Jamod, and Khamgaon. The NCP (Sharad Pawar) may nominate Rajendra Shingane in Sindkhed Raja, although internal tensions within the MVA could make the race more complex.
